Scientists Warn of Looming Heavy Rainfalls
A recent climate study evaluating changes in East Africa’s rainfall patterns predicts that extreme precipitation will become more often and heavy rainfall events in Kenya will intensify.
The study, which was released last month in the Theoretical and Applied Climatology Journal, demonstrates how changes in rainfall extremes brought about by global warming have significant effects on livelihoods, infrastructure, and agriculture.
According to the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) report, “increased greenhouse gas emissions are also projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events.”
Scientists caution that flooding will become more common in East Africa as a result of “an increase in both the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation events.”
Recent seasonal outlooks from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) predict unpredictable and heavy rainfall for the approaching March-April-May (MAM) season, which is consistent with Kenya’s shifting rainfall patterns.
Kenya Met’s most recent forecast in the Climate Outlook for the March-April-May (MAM) 2025 “Long Rains” season predicts below-average rainfall over northeastern Kenya and portions of the coast, while near-to-above-average rainfall is expected in parts of western Kenya, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley.
This prediction is consistent with ICPAC’s data, which show below-normal rainfall in sections of Ethiopia, Eritrea, eastern and northern Kenya, and much of Somalia.
Although some locations are expected to have rainfall deficiencies, the climate study indicates that when it does rain, it will do so in more intense bursts.
These periods of intense precipitation have the potential to cause flash floods, which would harm infrastructure, uproot communities, and worsen the spread of waterborne illnesses.
Due to Kenya’s history of unpredictable rainfall, there have been severe economic and humanitarian repercussions from periods of flooding and drought. Devastating floods in 2024 forced thousands of people to flee sections of Nairobi and Kisumu. Scientists worry that as climate change picks up speed, these kinds of incidents will occur more frequently.
Even if some regions of Kenya are expected to see a lot of rainfall, other regions are still quite susceptible to drought. According to the study, “for certain East African regions, such as parts of Somalia, Eastern Ethiopia, and northern Kenya, the risk of drought and consecutive dry days is either neutral or slightly declining.” However, it’s expected that drought conditions may worsen in other places, like Tanzania.
Kenyan temperature projections According to Met, temperatures are higher than usual throughout Kenya, especially in the northern and coastal areas. When severe rainfall events are coupled with warmer temperatures, evaporation rates can rise, intensifying storms and exacerbating the consequences of heavy precipitation.
Authorities are calling for better disaster response plans and early preparedness in order to reduce the risks brought on by changing rainfall patterns.
